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Portugal · Liga 3 · Liga 3 Promotion Group

09 May 2026 14:00 UTC

TROFENSE vs VITORIA DE GUIMARAES B

Final 1:1 Almanac Moment

Draw Last goal: Trofense

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Ejike Opara — Vitoria de Guimaraes B
  2. ⚽ Moussa Diarra — Trofense

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
40%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Draw
Nice call
48%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
65%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
56%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
76%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Nice call
9%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 29% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 90 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 31% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 288 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 285 completed matches.

1X2 31% (Weak)
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
Total 1.5 54% (Average)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
Total 4.5 88% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 56 past matches

1X2 34% (Weak)
Both teams to score 45% (Weak)
Total 1.5 50% (Average)
Total 2.5 63% (Good)
Total 3.5 79% (Strong)
Total 4.5 91% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 31% (Weak)
78 predictions
Both teams to score 46% (Average)
145 predictions
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
200 predictions
Total 2.5 61% (Good)
171 predictions
Total 3.5 84% (Strong)
235 predictions
Total 4.5 93% (Strong)
267 predictions

Match overview