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Germany · Bundesliga

16 May 2026 13:30 UTC

FREIBURG vs RB LEIPZIG

Final 4:1

Top match Freiburg won Last goal: Freiburg

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Niklas Beste — Freiburg
  2. ⚽ Igor Matanovic · assist Johan Manzambi — Freiburg
  3. ⚽ Assan Ouédraogo · assist Yan Diomande — RB Leipzig

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Matthias Ginter · assist Jordy Makengo — Freiburg
  2. ⚽ Derry Scherhant · assist Igor Matanovic — Freiburg

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
Underdog
46%
1X2
Freiburg
90-minute result: Freiburg
Nice call
48%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
81%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
48%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
44%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
44%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
5%
Score
5:3

Chance of this exact score

Result: 4:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 46% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 52 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 24% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 302 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 296 completed matches.

1X2 43% (Weak)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 77% (Strong)
Total 2.5 56% (Good)
Total 3.5 54% (Average)
Total 4.5 70% (Strong)
Score 4% (Risky)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 65 past matches

1X2 32% (Weak)
Both teams to score 46% (Average)
Total 1.5 77% (Strong)
Total 2.5 62% (Good)
Total 3.5 55% (Good)
Total 4.5 71% (Strong)
Score 2% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 43% (Weak)
224 predictions
Both teams to score 60% (Good)
187 predictions
Total 1.5 84% (Strong)
260 predictions
Total 2.5 66% (Strong)
181 predictions
Total 3.5 43% (Weak)
106 predictions
Total 4.5 23% (Weak)
53 predictions

Match overview