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Germany · Bundesliga

16 May 2026 13:30 UTC

BAYER LEVERKUSEN vs HAMBURGER SV

Final 1:1

Top match Draw Last goal: Bayer Leverkusen

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Fábio Vieira · assist Nicolás Capaldo — Hamburger SV
  2. ⚽ Jarell Quansah · assist Aleix García — Bayer Leverkusen

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
Favorite
44%
1X2
Bayer Leverkusen
90-minute result: Draw
Nice call
48%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
81%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
53%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
44%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
44%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
6%
Score
4:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 55% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+3; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 29 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 24% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 302 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 296 completed matches.

1X2 43% (Weak)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 77% (Strong)
Total 2.5 56% (Good)
Total 3.5 54% (Average)
Total 4.5 70% (Strong)
Score 4% (Risky)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 65 past matches

1X2 45% (Weak)
Both teams to score 62% (Good)
Total 1.5 74% (Strong)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 48% (Average)
Total 4.5 69% (Strong)
Score 6% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 43% (Weak)
224 predictions
Both teams to score 60% (Good)
187 predictions
Total 1.5 84% (Strong)
260 predictions
Total 2.5 66% (Strong)
181 predictions
Total 3.5 43% (Weak)
106 predictions
Total 4.5 23% (Weak)
53 predictions

Match overview