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Germany · Bundesliga

16 May 2026 13:30 UTC

UNION BERLIN vs AUGSBURG

Final 4:0

Top match Union Berlin won Last goal: Union Berlin

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Andrej Ilic · assist András Schäfer — Union Berlin
  2. ⚽ Andrej Ilic · assist Oliver Burke — Union Berlin

2nd half

  1. ⚽ András Schäfer · assist Livan Burcu — Union Berlin
  2. ⚽ Woo-yeong Jeong — Union Berlin

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
Favorite
49%
1X2
Augsburg
90-minute result: Union Berlin
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
On point
81%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
53%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
44%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
44%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
2:4

Chance of this exact score

Result: 4:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 41% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 41 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 24% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 302 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 296 completed matches.

1X2 43% (Weak)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 77% (Strong)
Total 2.5 56% (Good)
Total 3.5 54% (Average)
Total 4.5 70% (Strong)
Score 4% (Risky)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 65 past matches

1X2 29% (Weak)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 78% (Strong)
Total 2.5 57% (Good)
Total 3.5 55% (Good)
Total 4.5 74% (Strong)
Score 3% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 43% (Weak)
224 predictions
Both teams to score 60% (Good)
187 predictions
Total 1.5 84% (Strong)
260 predictions
Total 2.5 66% (Strong)
181 predictions
Total 3.5 43% (Weak)
106 predictions
Total 4.5 23% (Weak)
53 predictions

Match overview