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Portugal · Liga Portugal

11 May 2026 19:15 UTC

RIO AVE vs SPORTING CP

Final 1:4

Sporting CP won Last goal: Sporting CP

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Diogo Bezerra · assist Tamble Monteiro — Rio Ave
  2. ⚽ Luis Suárez (penalty) — Sporting CP
  3. ⚽ Gustavo Mancha (own goal) — Sporting CP

2nd half

  1. 🟥 Francisco Petrasso (2nd yellow) — Rio Ave
  2. ⚽ Trincão · assist Ousmane Diomande — Sporting CP
  3. 🟥 Ryan Guilherme (2nd yellow) — Rio Ave
  4. ⚽ Geovany Quenda · assist Maxi Araújo — Sporting CP

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
Favorite
47%
1X2
Sporting CP
90-minute result: Sporting CP
As expected
54%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
Solid call
72%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Solid call
61%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Off target
71%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
87%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
8%
Score
0:3

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:4

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 55% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-3; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 11 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 26% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 293 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 281 completed matches.

1X2 52% (Average)
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
Total 1.5 64% (Good)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 63% (Good)
Total 4.5 84% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 61 past matches

1X2 56% (Good)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 74% (Strong)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 62% (Good)
Total 4.5 75% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 52% (Average)
202 predictions
Both teams to score 59% (Good)
121 predictions
Total 1.5 74% (Strong)
227 predictions
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
137 predictions
Total 3.5 71% (Strong)
223 predictions
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
256 predictions

Match overview