ALVERCA vs ESTORIL
Match timeline
1st half
- Figueiredo · assist Nabil Touaizi — Alverca
2nd half
- André Lacximicant · assist Gonçalo Costa — Estoril
Model prediction
This pick goes against expectations — this team is less likely to win, but the model sees value here.
The model won about 19.1% of similar picks in the past (42 matches).
Based on available data at the time of prediction.
Chance at least one team fails to score
Chance of 1 or fewer goals
Chance of 2 or fewer goals
Chance of 3 or fewer goals
Chance of 4 or fewer goals
Chance of this exact score
Model Context
Match prediction context
How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).
Based on 68 past matches with this goal margin in this league.
Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.
Based on 292 finished matches in this league.
League
Historical model performance in this league before this match date.
Based on 280 completed matches.
Teams
This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.
Based on 60 past matches
Markets
This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.