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Portugal · Liga Portugal

11 May 2026 19:15 UTC

TONDELA vs MOREIRENSE

Final 2:0

Tondela won Last goal: Tondela

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Makan Aiko · assist Pedro Maranhão — Tondela

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Rony Lopes · assist Tiago Manso — Tondela
  2. 🟥 Maracás (straight red) — Moreirense

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
Favorite
47%
1X2
Tondela
90-minute result: Tondela
Nice call
54%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No
Off target
66%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Solid call
66%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
71%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
87%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
1:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 48% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 66 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 26% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 293 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 281 completed matches.

1X2 52% (Average)
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
Total 1.5 64% (Good)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 63% (Good)
Total 4.5 84% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 61 past matches

1X2 43% (Weak)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 61% (Good)
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
Total 3.5 66% (Strong)
Total 4.5 85% (Strong)
Score 3% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 52% (Average)
202 predictions
Both teams to score 59% (Good)
121 predictions
Total 1.5 24% (Weak)
54 predictions
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
144 predictions
Total 3.5 71% (Strong)
223 predictions
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
256 predictions

Match overview