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Portugal · Liga Portugal

11 May 2026 19:15 UTC

VITORIA DE GUIMARAES vs CASA PIA AC

Final 0:1

Casa Pia AC won Last goal: Casa Pia AC

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Gaizka Larrazabal · assist João Marques — Casa Pia AC

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
Underdog
47%
1X2
Casa Pia AC
90-minute result: Casa Pia AC
As expected
53%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Off target
72%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
Off target
61%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
Solid call
71%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
87%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
8%
Score
1:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 47% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 68 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 26% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 293 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 281 completed matches.

1X2 52% (Average)
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
Total 1.5 64% (Good)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 63% (Good)
Total 4.5 84% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 62 past matches

1X2 47% (Average)
Both teams to score 55% (Average)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 63% (Good)
Total 4.5 81% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 52% (Average)
202 predictions
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
160 predictions
Total 1.5 74% (Strong)
227 predictions
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
137 predictions
Total 3.5 71% (Strong)
223 predictions
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
256 predictions

Match overview