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Scotland · Premiership · Premiership Championship Group

09 May 2026 19:00 UTC

MOTHERWELL vs HEARTS

Final 1:1

Top match Draw Last goal: Hearts

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Stephen Kingsley (own goal) — Motherwell
  2. ⚽ Lawrence Shankland — Hearts

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
Favorite
45%
1X2
Hearts
90-minute result: Draw
Nice call
54%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
51%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
35%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
5%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
8%
Score
2:4

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 43% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 21 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 28% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 201 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 205 completed matches.

1X2 49% (Average)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 66% (Strong)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 63% (Good)
Total 4.5 81% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 66 past matches

1X2 41% (Weak)
Both teams to score 53% (Average)
Total 1.5 62% (Good)
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
Total 3.5 71% (Strong)
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 49% (Average)
154 predictions
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
117 predictions
Total 1.5 76% (Strong)
168 predictions
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
114 predictions
Total 3.5 42% (Weak)
60 predictions
Total 4.5 19% (Weak)
21 predictions

Match overview