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Spain · Segunda División · LaLiga2

04 May 2026 18:30 UTC

ALMERIA vs CD MIRANDES

Final 4:2

Almeria won Last goal: Almeria

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Léo Baptistão — Almeria
  2. ⚽ Fernando Medrano — CD Mirandes
  3. ⚽ Juan Gutierrez (own goal) — Almeria
  4. ⚽ Salim El Jebari — CD Mirandes

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Fernando Medrano (own goal) — Almeria
  2. ⚽ Jon Morcillo (penalty) — Almeria

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
37%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Almeria
Nice call
54%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
55%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
71%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
9%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 4:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 35% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 130 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 26% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 422 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 408 completed matches.

1X2 34% (Weak)
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
Total 1.5 60% (Good)
Total 2.5 55% (Good)
Total 3.5 64% (Good)
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 70 past matches

1X2 37% (Weak)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 61% (Good)
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
Total 3.5 61% (Good)
Total 4.5 74% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 34% (Weak)
105 predictions
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
229 predictions
Total 1.5 71% (Strong)
290 predictions
Total 2.5 55% (Good)
224 predictions
Total 3.5 74% (Strong)
317 predictions
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
373 predictions

Match overview