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Ecuador · Serie A

03 May 2026 18:00 UTC

CSD MACARA vs ORENSE

Final 1:2

Orense won Last goal: Orense

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Ángel Mena — Orense

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Federico Paz (penalty) — CSD Macara
  2. ⚽ Michael Bermúdez — Orense

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
40%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Orense
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
No surprise
30%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
55%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Solid call
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
8%
Score
0:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 30% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 102 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 28% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 286 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 245 completed matches.

1X2 28% (Weak)
Both teams to score 45% (Weak)
Total 1.5 57% (Good)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 69% (Strong)
Total 4.5 84% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 63 past matches

1X2 43% (Weak)
Both teams to score 40% (Weak)
Total 1.5 56% (Good)
Total 2.5 44% (Weak)
Total 3.5 71% (Strong)
Total 4.5 89% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 28% (Weak)
76 predictions
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
114 predictions
Total 1.5 31% (Weak)
71 predictions
Total 2.5 59% (Good)
140 predictions
Total 3.5 79% (Strong)
202 predictions
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
231 predictions

Match overview