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England · League Two

02 May 2026 14:00 UTC

GILLINGHAM vs SHREWSBURY

Final 1:0

Top match Gillingham won Last goal: Gillingham

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Garath McCleary — Gillingham

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
37%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Gillingham
As expected
57%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Off target
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
51%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
31%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
5%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
11%
Score
3:3

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 24% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 183 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 24% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 528 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 527 completed matches.

1X2 22% (Weak)
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 63% (Good)
Total 4.5 82% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 87 past matches

1X2 37% (Weak)
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
Total 1.5 66% (Strong)
Total 2.5 59% (Good)
Total 3.5 61% (Good)
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
Score 11% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 22% (Weak)
148 predictions
Both teams to score 55% (Good)
294 predictions
Total 1.5 73% (Strong)
413 predictions
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
265 predictions
Total 3.5 31% (Weak)
133 predictions
Total 4.5 18% (Weak)
55 predictions

Match overview