← Back to matches

England · League Two

02 May 2026 14:00 UTC

FLEETWOOD vs MILTON KEYNES DONS

Final 1:1

Top match Draw Last goal: Milton Keynes Dons

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Ronan Coughlan · assist James Bolton — Fleetwood
  2. ⚽ Callum Paterson · assist Ben Wiles — Milton Keynes Dons

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
Favorite
39%
1X2
Milton Keynes Dons
90-minute result: Draw
Nice call
57%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
51%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
Solid call
71%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
7%
Score
1:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 37% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 114 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 24% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 528 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 527 completed matches.

1X2 41% (Weak)
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 63% (Good)
Total 4.5 82% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 87 past matches

1X2 33% (Weak)
Both teams to score 59% (Good)
Total 1.5 67% (Strong)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 70% (Strong)
Total 4.5 82% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 41% (Weak)
379 predictions
Both teams to score 55% (Good)
294 predictions
Total 1.5 73% (Strong)
413 predictions
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
265 predictions
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
394 predictions
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
472 predictions

Match overview