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Scotland · Championship

01 May 2026 18:45 UTC

AYR vs ST. JOHNSTONE

Final 0:1

St. Johnstone won Last goal: St. Johnstone

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Kai Fotheringham — St. Johnstone

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
37%
1X2
Ayr
90-minute result: St. Johnstone
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Off target
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
51%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
37%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
28%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Under
Off target
14%
Score
3:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 37% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 49 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 33% (High)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 167 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 174 completed matches.

1X2 37% (Weak)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 61% (Good)
Total 2.5 56% (Good)
Total 3.5 69% (Strong)
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 66 past matches

1X2 44% (Weak)
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
Total 1.5 65% (Strong)
Total 2.5 61% (Good)
Total 3.5 71% (Strong)
Total 4.5 82% (Strong)
Score 14% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 37% (Weak)
129 predictions
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
94 predictions
Total 1.5 71% (Strong)
134 predictions
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
82 predictions
Total 3.5 36% (Weak)
39 predictions
Total 4.5 14% (Weak)
14 predictions

Match overview