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England · FA Cup

26 Apr 2026 14:00 UTC

CHELSEA vs LEEDS

Final 1:0

Chelsea won Last goal: Chelsea

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Enzo Fernández · assist Pedro Neto — Chelsea

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Big miss
Underdog
51%
1X2
Leeds
90-minute result: Chelsea
Off target
62%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Big miss
80%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
Off target
70%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
43%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
Solid call
75%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
7%
Score
1:3

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 33% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 15 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 23% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 120 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 113 completed matches.

1X2 53% (Average)
Both teams to score 58% (Good)
Total 1.5 75% (Strong)
Total 2.5 60% (Good)
Total 3.5 50% (Average)
Total 4.5 65% (Good)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 5 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 60% (Good)
Both teams to score 20% (Weak)
Total 1.5 60% (Good)
Total 2.5 40% (Weak)
Total 3.5 80% (Strong)
Total 4.5 60% (Good)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 53% (Average)
87 predictions
Both teams to score 64% (Good)
76 predictions
Total 1.5 84% (Strong)
96 predictions
Total 2.5 75% (Strong)
72 predictions
Total 3.5 46% (Average)
41 predictions
Total 4.5 74% (Strong)
95 predictions

Match overview