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England · FA Cup

25 Apr 2026 16:15 UTC

MANCHESTER CITY vs SOUTHAMPTON

Final 2:1

Manchester City won Last goal: Manchester City

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Finn Azaz · assist Kuryu Matsuki — Southampton
  2. ⚽ Jérémy Doku · assist Tijjani Reijnders — Manchester City
  3. ⚽ Nico González · assist Jérémy Doku — Manchester City

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Big miss
Underdog
51%
1X2
Southampton
90-minute result: Manchester City
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
No surprise
28%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
No surprise
37%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Nice call
54%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
75%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
7%
Score
0:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 33% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 21 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 23% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 119 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 112 completed matches.

1X2 53% (Average)
Both teams to score 58% (Good)
Total 1.5 76% (Strong)
Total 2.5 61% (Good)
Total 3.5 50% (Average)
Total 4.5 64% (Good)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 7 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 43% (Weak)
Both teams to score 43% (Weak)
Total 1.5 86% (Strong)
Total 2.5 43% (Weak)
Total 3.5 29% (Weak)
Total 4.5 71% (Strong)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 53% (Average)
86 predictions
Both teams to score 44% (Weak)
36 predictions
Total 1.5 25% (Weak)
16 predictions
Total 2.5 35% (Weak)
40 predictions
Total 3.5 52% (Average)
71 predictions
Total 4.5 73% (Strong)
94 predictions

Match overview