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England · FA Cup

04 Apr 2026 16:15 UTC

CHELSEA vs PORT VALE

Final 7:0

Chelsea won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Jorrel Hato — Chelsea
  2. ⚽ João Pedro — Chelsea
  3. ⚽ Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel — Chelsea

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Tosin Adarabioyo — Chelsea
  2. ⚽ Andrey Santos — Chelsea
  3. ⚽ Estevao — Chelsea
  4. ⚽ Alejandro Garnacho — Chelsea

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

On point
Favorite
51%
1X2
Chelsea
90-minute result: Chelsea
Off target
61%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
On point
80%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Solid call
70%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
43%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Over
Off target
75%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
7%
Score
3:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 7:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 50% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 14 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 23% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 115 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 108 completed matches.

1X2 54% (Average)
Both teams to score 60% (Good)
Total 1.5 76% (Strong)
Total 2.5 61% (Good)
Total 3.5 49% (Average)
Total 4.5 64% (Good)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 5 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 60% (Good)
Both teams to score 80% (Strong)
Total 1.5 60% (Good)
Total 2.5 60% (Good)
Total 3.5 80% (Strong)
Total 4.5 40% (Weak)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 54% (Average)
82 predictions
Both teams to score 67% (Strong)
73 predictions
Total 1.5 85% (Strong)
92 predictions
Total 2.5 75% (Strong)
69 predictions
Total 3.5 45% (Average)
40 predictions
Total 4.5 73% (Strong)
90 predictions

Match overview