← Back to matches

Poland · Ekstraklasa

26 Apr 2026 15:30 UTC

LECH POZNAN vs LEGIA WARSZAWA

Final 4:0

Lech Poznan won Last goal: Lech Poznan

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Ali Gholizadeh — Lech Poznan
  2. 🟥 Rafal Augustyniak (straight red) — Legia Warszawa
  3. ⚽ Mikael Ishak — Lech Poznan
  4. ⚽ Michal Gurgul — Lech Poznan
  5. ⚽ Mikael Ishak — Lech Poznan

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
Underdog
37%
1X2
Legia Warszawa
90-minute result: Lech Poznan
Off target
62%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
On point
78%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
51%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Off target
71%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Off target
13%
Score
1:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 4:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 32% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 57 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 29% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 256 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 257 completed matches.

1X2 37% (Weak)
Both teams to score 57% (Good)
Total 1.5 68% (Strong)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 61% (Good)
Total 4.5 77% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 53 past matches

1X2 40% (Weak)
Both teams to score 66% (Strong)
Total 1.5 70% (Strong)
Total 2.5 60% (Good)
Total 3.5 64% (Good)
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
Score 13% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 37% (Weak)
176 predictions
Both teams to score 62% (Good)
168 predictions
Total 1.5 78% (Strong)
204 predictions
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
124 predictions
Total 3.5 71% (Strong)
201 predictions
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
226 predictions

Match overview