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France · Coupe de France

21 Apr 2026 19:10 UTC

LENS vs TOULOUSE

Final 4:1

Lens won Last goal: Lens

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Florian Thauvin (penalty) — Lens
  2. ⚽ Allan Saint-Maximin — Lens
  3. ⚽ Santiago Hidalgo — Toulouse
  4. ⚽ Matthieu Udol — Lens

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Adrien Thomasson — Lens

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
41%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Lens
As expected
57%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
Off target
65%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
65%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
71%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
11%
Score
0:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 4:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 15% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 13 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 18% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 60 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 57 completed matches.

1X2 15% (Weak)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 47% (Average)
Total 3.5 70% (Strong)
Total 4.5 82% (Strong)
Score 11% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 6 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 50% (Average)
Both teams to score 67% (Strong)
Total 1.5 83% (Strong)
Total 2.5 33% (Weak)
Total 3.5 50% (Average)
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 15% (Weak)
13 predictions
Both teams to score 58% (Good)
24 predictions
Total 1.5 9% (Weak)
11 predictions
Total 2.5 33% (Weak)
27 predictions
Total 3.5 74% (Strong)
46 predictions
Total 4.5 85% (Strong)
54 predictions

Match overview