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France · Coupe de France

05 Mar 2026 20:10 UTC

LYON vs LENS

Final 2:2

Draw

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Florian Thauvin — Lens
  2. ⚽ Abdallah Sima — Lens

2nd half

  1. 🟥 Arthur Masuaku — Lens
  2. ⚽ Roman Yaremchuk — Lyon
  3. ⚽ Rémi Himbert — Lyon

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Big miss
Underdog
56%
1X2
Lyon
90-minute result: Draw
As expected
57%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
On point
78%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
34%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
71%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Off target
17%
Score
2:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 50% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 6 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 17% (Low)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 59 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 57 completed matches.

1X2 59% (Good)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 47% (Average)
Total 3.5 70% (Strong)
Total 4.5 82% (Strong)
Score 11% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 6 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 67% (Strong)
Both teams to score 33% (Weak)
Total 1.5 100% (Strong)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 50% (Average)
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
Score 17% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 59% (Good)
44 predictions
Both teams to score 58% (Good)
24 predictions
Total 1.5 76% (Strong)
46 predictions
Total 2.5 33% (Weak)
27 predictions
Total 3.5 74% (Strong)
46 predictions
Total 4.5 85% (Strong)
54 predictions

Match overview