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France · Coupe de France

04 Mar 2026 20:00 UTC

MARSEILLE vs TOULOUSE

Final 2:2

Draw

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Mason Greenwood — Marseille
  2. ⚽ Yann Gboho — Toulouse

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Igor Paixão — Marseille
  2. ⚽ Charlie Cresswell — Toulouse

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Big miss
Favorite
51%
1X2
Marseille
90-minute result: Draw
Nice call
47%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
78%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
55%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Off target
71%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
On point
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
11%
Score
2:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 56% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 9 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 14% (Low)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 57 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 57 completed matches.

1X2 59% (Good)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 47% (Average)
Total 3.5 70% (Strong)
Total 4.5 82% (Strong)
Score 11% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 6 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 50% (Average)
Both teams to score 67% (Strong)
Total 1.5 83% (Strong)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 83% (Strong)
Total 4.5 67% (Strong)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 59% (Good)
44 predictions
Both teams to score 42% (Weak)
33 predictions
Total 1.5 76% (Strong)
46 predictions
Total 2.5 60% (Good)
30 predictions
Total 3.5 74% (Strong)
46 predictions
Total 4.5 85% (Strong)
54 predictions

Match overview