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Wales · Premier League · Premier League Championship Group

18 Apr 2026 16:15 UTC

CAERNARFON vs PENYBONT

Final 2:0

Caernarfon won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Adrian Cieslewicz — Caernarfon
  2. ⚽ Rio Owen — Caernarfon

2nd half

  1. 🟥 Hughes — Penybont

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

On point
Favorite
51%
1X2
Caernarfon
90-minute result: Caernarfon
As expected
54%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
On point
80%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
55%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
35%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
25%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
11%
Score
5:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 56% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+3; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 16 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 25% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 175 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 177 completed matches.

1X2 49% (Average)
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
Total 1.5 73% (Strong)
Total 2.5 57% (Good)
Total 3.5 55% (Average)
Total 4.5 71% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 57 past matches

1X2 44% (Weak)
Both teams to score 60% (Good)
Total 1.5 77% (Strong)
Total 2.5 58% (Good)
Total 3.5 54% (Average)
Total 4.5 67% (Strong)
Score 11% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 49% (Average)
134 predictions
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
108 predictions
Total 1.5 81% (Strong)
149 predictions
Total 2.5 59% (Good)
110 predictions
Total 3.5 40% (Weak)
70 predictions
Total 4.5 27% (Weak)
45 predictions

Match overview