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Europe · UEFA Youth League · UEFA Youth League Final Stage

17 Apr 2026 16:45 UTC

REAL MADRID U19 vs PARIS SAINT GERMAIN U19

Final 1:1

Draw

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Elijah Ly — Paris Saint Germain U19

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Liberto Navascues — Real Madrid U19

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Big miss
51%
1X2
Real Madrid U19
90-minute result: Draw
Nice call
54%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
85%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Off target
70%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
58%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
23%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
6%
Score
3:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 64% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 44 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 18% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 216 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 211 completed matches.

1X2 50% (Average)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 79% (Strong)
Total 2.5 61% (Good)
Total 3.5 52% (Average)
Total 4.5 60% (Good)
Score 5% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 18 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 56% (Good)
Both teams to score 44% (Weak)
Total 1.5 83% (Strong)
Total 2.5 67% (Strong)
Total 3.5 56% (Good)
Total 4.5 61% (Good)
Score 6% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 50% (Average)
169 predictions
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
147 predictions
Total 1.5 88% (Strong)
187 predictions
Total 2.5 72% (Strong)
149 predictions
Total 3.5 56% (Good)
101 predictions
Total 4.5 46% (Average)
59 predictions

Match overview