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Europe · UEFA Youth League · UEFA Youth League Final Stage

17 Mar 2026 15:00 UTC

VILLARREAL U19 vs PARIS SAINT GERMAIN U19

Final 0:1

Paris Saint Germain U19 won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Elijah Ly — Paris Saint Germain U19

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
45%
1X2
Paris Saint Germain U19
90-minute result: Paris Saint Germain U19
As expected
54%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Big miss
85%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
Off target
70%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
Lucky hit
43%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Nice call
59%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
6%
Score
1:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 36% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 36 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 18% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 212 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 207 completed matches.

1X2 50% (Average)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 79% (Strong)
Total 2.5 61% (Good)
Total 3.5 52% (Average)
Total 4.5 60% (Good)
Score 5% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 16 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 63% (Good)
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
Total 1.5 94% (Strong)
Total 2.5 63% (Good)
Total 3.5 44% (Weak)
Total 4.5 50% (Average)
Score 6% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 50% (Average)
165 predictions
Both teams to score 55% (Average)
144 predictions
Total 1.5 89% (Strong)
183 predictions
Total 2.5 73% (Strong)
146 predictions
Total 3.5 48% (Average)
106 predictions
Total 4.5 66% (Strong)
148 predictions

Match overview