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Europe · Champions League · Champions League Final Stage

07 Apr 2026 19:00 UTC

SPORTING CP vs ARSENAL

Final 0:1

Top match Arsenal won

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Kai Havertz — Arsenal

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
35%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Arsenal
As expected
47%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Big miss
81%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
Lucky hit
41%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Lucky hit
41%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
74%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Off target
16%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 21% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 38 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 17% (Low)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 177 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 174 completed matches.

1X2 24% (Weak)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 74% (Strong)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 45% (Average)
Total 4.5 57% (Good)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 19 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 68% (Strong)
Both teams to score 58% (Good)
Total 1.5 84% (Strong)
Total 2.5 58% (Good)
Total 3.5 63% (Good)
Total 4.5 68% (Strong)
Score 16% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 24% (Weak)
34 predictions
Both teams to score 55% (Average)
106 predictions
Total 1.5 84% (Strong)
151 predictions
Total 2.5 30% (Weak)
64 predictions
Total 3.5 49% (Average)
106 predictions
Total 4.5 68% (Strong)
136 predictions

Match overview