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England · Papa John's Trophy · EFL Trophy Final Stage

12 Apr 2026 14:00 UTC

LUTON vs STOCKPORT COUNTY

Final 3:1

Luton won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Adama Sidibeh — Stockport County
  2. ⚽ Emilio Lawrence — Luton
  3. ⚽ Nahki Wells — Luton

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Nahki Wells — Luton

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
45%
1X2
Stockport County
90-minute result: Luton
Nice call
57%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
85%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Solid call
70%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
54%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Solid call
75%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
7%
Score
1:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 36% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 22 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 11% (Low)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 124 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 125 completed matches.

1X2 56% (Good)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 80% (Strong)
Total 2.5 61% (Good)
Total 3.5 49% (Average)
Total 4.5 59% (Good)
Score 5% (Risky)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 14 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 57% (Good)
Both teams to score 43% (Weak)
Total 1.5 86% (Strong)
Total 2.5 57% (Good)
Total 3.5 57% (Good)
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 56% (Good)
102 predictions
Both teams to score 60% (Good)
91 predictions
Total 1.5 85% (Strong)
115 predictions
Total 2.5 74% (Strong)
91 predictions
Total 3.5 49% (Average)
69 predictions
Total 4.5 71% (Strong)
87 predictions

Match overview