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England · Papa John's Trophy · EFL Trophy Final Stage

03 Mar 2026 20:00 UTC

DONCASTER vs STOCKPORT COUNTY

Final 0:1

Stockport County won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Oliver Norwood — Stockport County

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
45%
1X2
Stockport County
90-minute result: Stockport County
As expected
57%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Big miss
85%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
Off target
70%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
43%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
20%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
3:4

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 33% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 21 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 11% (Low)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 122 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 123 completed matches.

1X2 55% (Good)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 80% (Strong)
Total 2.5 61% (Good)
Total 3.5 49% (Average)
Total 4.5 59% (Good)
Score 5% (Risky)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 11 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 45% (Average)
Both teams to score 27% (Weak)
Total 1.5 91% (Strong)
Total 2.5 45% (Average)
Total 3.5 55% (Average)
Total 4.5 73% (Strong)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 55% (Good)
100 predictions
Both teams to score 61% (Good)
90 predictions
Total 1.5 86% (Strong)
113 predictions
Total 2.5 74% (Strong)
89 predictions
Total 3.5 49% (Average)
55 predictions
Total 4.5 32% (Weak)
37 predictions

Match overview