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England · Papa John's Trophy · EFL Trophy Final Stage

04 Mar 2026 19:30 UTC

LUTON vs NORTHAMPTON

Final 2:1

Luton won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Kyle McAdam — Northampton

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Nahki Wells — Luton
  2. ⚽ Liam Walsh — Luton

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

On point
Favorite
51%
1X2
Luton
90-minute result: Luton
No surprise
44%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
On point
85%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Solid call
70%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
43%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
75%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
8%
Score
3:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 60% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+3; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 10 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 11% (Low)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 123 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 124 completed matches.

1X2 55% (Good)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 80% (Strong)
Total 2.5 60% (Good)
Total 3.5 48% (Average)
Total 4.5 59% (Good)
Score 5% (Risky)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 12 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 50% (Average)
Both teams to score 67% (Strong)
Total 1.5 92% (Strong)
Total 2.5 75% (Strong)
Total 3.5 58% (Good)
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 55% (Good)
101 predictions
Both teams to score 27% (Weak)
33 predictions
Total 1.5 85% (Strong)
114 predictions
Total 2.5 73% (Strong)
90 predictions
Total 3.5 49% (Average)
68 predictions
Total 4.5 71% (Strong)
86 predictions

Match overview