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England · Papa John's Trophy · EFL Trophy Final Stage

10 Feb 2026 19:00 UTC

AFC WIMBLEDON vs NORTHAMPTON

Final 1:2

Northampton won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Jack Vale — Northampton

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Matty Stevens — AFC Wimbledon
  2. ⚽ Tom Eaves — Northampton

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
Favorite
39%
1X2
AFC Wimbledon
90-minute result: Northampton
Nice call
57%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
80%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Solid call
65%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
43%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
37%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
3:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 59% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 32 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 11% (Low)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 118 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 120 completed matches.

1X2 48% (Average)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 80% (Strong)
Total 2.5 61% (Good)
Total 3.5 49% (Average)
Total 4.5 59% (Good)
Score 5% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 10 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 50% (Average)
Both teams to score 70% (Strong)
Total 1.5 80% (Strong)
Total 2.5 60% (Good)
Total 3.5 50% (Average)
Total 4.5 60% (Good)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 56% (Good)
98 predictions
Both teams to score 61% (Good)
87 predictions
Total 1.5 85% (Strong)
110 predictions
Total 2.5 74% (Strong)
87 predictions
Total 3.5 50% (Average)
54 predictions
Total 4.5 33% (Weak)
36 predictions

Match overview