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England · National League Premier · National League

11 Apr 2026 14:00 UTC

CARLISLE vs SUTTON UNITED

Final 3:0

Carlisle won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Harvey Macadam — Carlisle
  2. ⚽ Harvey Macadam — Carlisle
  3. ⚽ Ryan Galvin — Carlisle

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

On point
Favorite
51%
1X2
Carlisle
90-minute result: Carlisle
As expected
57%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
On point
80%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
55%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
37%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
5%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
4:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 54% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 85 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 24% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 478 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 502 completed matches.

1X2 46% (Average)
Both teams to score 53% (Average)
Total 1.5 74% (Strong)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 60% (Good)
Total 4.5 75% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 83 past matches

1X2 35% (Weak)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 77% (Strong)
Total 2.5 47% (Average)
Total 3.5 59% (Good)
Total 4.5 70% (Strong)
Score 4% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 46% (Average)
375 predictions
Both teams to score 58% (Good)
295 predictions
Total 1.5 83% (Strong)
411 predictions
Total 2.5 57% (Good)
269 predictions
Total 3.5 37% (Weak)
147 predictions
Total 4.5 19% (Weak)
64 predictions

Match overview