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Europe · Champions League · Champions League Final Stage

17 Mar 2026 20:00 UTC

MANCHESTER CITY vs REAL MADRID

Final 1:2

Top match Real Madrid won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. 🟥 Bernardo Silva — Manchester City
  2. ⚽ Vinícius Júnior — Real Madrid
  3. ⚽ Erling Haaland — Manchester City

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Vinícius Júnior — Real Madrid

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
Favorite
48%
1X2
Manchester City
90-minute result: Real Madrid
No surprise
41%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
On point
81%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
53%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
47%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
74%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
7%
Score
3:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 54% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+3; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 13 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 18% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 169 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 167 completed matches.

1X2 56% (Good)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 73% (Strong)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 45% (Weak)
Total 4.5 58% (Good)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 18 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 56% (Good)
Both teams to score 39% (Weak)
Total 1.5 72% (Strong)
Total 2.5 39% (Weak)
Total 3.5 50% (Average)
Total 4.5 39% (Weak)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 56% (Good)
136 predictions
Both teams to score 40% (Weak)
67 predictions
Total 1.5 83% (Strong)
144 predictions
Total 2.5 65% (Good)
105 predictions
Total 3.5 49% (Average)
102 predictions
Total 4.5 68% (Strong)
130 predictions

Match overview