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Europe · Champions League · Champions League Final Stage

18 Mar 2026 20:00 UTC

TOTTENHAM vs ATLETICO MADRID

Final 3:2

Top match Tottenham won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Randal Kolo Muani — Tottenham

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Julián Alvarez — Atletico Madrid
  2. ⚽ Xavi Simons — Tottenham
  3. ⚽ Dávid Hancko — Atletico Madrid
  4. ⚽ Xavi Simons — Tottenham

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
Underdog
44%
1X2
Atletico Madrid
90-minute result: Tottenham
Nice call
47%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
81%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
53%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
53%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Over
Off target
74%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
5%
Score
1:3

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 25% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 16 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 17% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 173 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 170 completed matches.

1X2 56% (Good)
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
Total 1.5 74% (Strong)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 45% (Average)
Total 4.5 58% (Good)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 19 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 42% (Weak)
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
Total 1.5 74% (Strong)
Total 2.5 47% (Average)
Total 3.5 53% (Average)
Total 4.5 68% (Strong)
Score 5% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 56% (Good)
138 predictions
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
102 predictions
Total 1.5 84% (Strong)
147 predictions
Total 2.5 65% (Strong)
107 predictions
Total 3.5 38% (Weak)
66 predictions
Total 4.5 69% (Strong)
132 predictions

Match overview