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Europe · Champions League · Champions League Final Stage

17 Mar 2026 20:00 UTC

ARSENAL vs BAYER LEVERKUSEN

Final 2:0

Top match Arsenal won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Eberechi Eze — Arsenal

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Declan Rice — Arsenal

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
35%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Arsenal
As expected
47%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
On point
81%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
41%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Nice call
47%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
74%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Big miss
26%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 23% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 35 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 18% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 169 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 167 completed matches.

1X2 26% (Weak)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 73% (Strong)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 45% (Weak)
Total 4.5 58% (Good)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 19 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 63% (Good)
Both teams to score 58% (Good)
Total 1.5 89% (Strong)
Total 2.5 58% (Good)
Total 3.5 58% (Good)
Total 4.5 68% (Strong)
Score 26% (Strong)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 26% (Weak)
31 predictions
Both teams to score 55% (Good)
100 predictions
Total 1.5 83% (Strong)
144 predictions
Total 2.5 29% (Weak)
62 predictions
Total 3.5 49% (Average)
102 predictions
Total 4.5 68% (Strong)
130 predictions

Match overview