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Europe · Champions League · Champions League Final Stage

11 Mar 2026 20:00 UTC

PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN vs CHELSEA

Final 5:2

Paris Saint-Germain won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Bradley Barcola — Paris Saint-Germain
  2. ⚽ Malo Gusto — Chelsea
  3. ⚽ Ousmane Dembélé — Paris Saint-Germain

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Enzo Fernández — Chelsea
  2. ⚽ Vitinha — Paris Saint-Germain
  3. ⚽ Khvicha Kvaratskhelia — Paris Saint-Germain
  4. ⚽ Khvicha Kvaratskhelia — Paris Saint-Germain

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
Favorite
48%
1X2
Paris Saint-Germain
90-minute result: Paris Saint-Germain
No surprise
41%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
On point
81%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
53%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
47%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
74%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
7%
Score
3:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 5:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 50% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+3; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 12 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 18% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 165 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 163 completed matches.

1X2 56% (Good)
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
Total 1.5 73% (Strong)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 44% (Weak)
Total 4.5 58% (Good)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 18 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 56% (Good)
Both teams to score 44% (Weak)
Total 1.5 83% (Strong)
Total 2.5 44% (Weak)
Total 3.5 22% (Weak)
Total 4.5 50% (Average)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 56% (Good)
133 predictions
Both teams to score 39% (Weak)
64 predictions
Total 1.5 83% (Strong)
141 predictions
Total 2.5 64% (Good)
104 predictions
Total 3.5 48% (Average)
98 predictions
Total 4.5 68% (Strong)
126 predictions

Match overview