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Russia · Cup

17 Mar 2026 16:30 UTC

FC KRASNODAR vs CSKA MOSCOW

Final 4:0

FC Krasnodar won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Douglas Augusto — FC Krasnodar
  2. 🟥 Matheus Reis — CSKA Moscow

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Joao Batxi — FC Krasnodar
  2. ⚽ Jhon Córdoba — FC Krasnodar
  3. 🟥 Moisés — CSKA Moscow
  4. ⚽ Joao Batxi — FC Krasnodar

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

On point
51%
1X2
FC Krasnodar
90-minute result: FC Krasnodar
As expected
54%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
On point
78%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
56%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
43%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
28%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
12%
Score
3:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 4:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 45% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 20 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 24% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 78 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 78 completed matches.

1X2 52% (Average)
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
Total 1.5 74% (Strong)
Total 2.5 56% (Good)
Total 3.5 64% (Good)
Total 4.5 73% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 17 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 65% (Good)
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
Total 1.5 76% (Strong)
Total 2.5 71% (Strong)
Total 3.5 71% (Strong)
Total 4.5 71% (Strong)
Score 12% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 52% (Average)
52 predictions
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
56 predictions
Total 1.5 80% (Strong)
70 predictions
Total 2.5 60% (Good)
45 predictions
Total 3.5 44% (Weak)
25 predictions
Total 4.5 14% (Weak)
14 predictions

Match overview