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Spain · Copa del Rey

04 Feb 2026 20:00 UTC

VALENCIA vs ATHLETIC CLUB

Final 1:2

Athletic Club won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Umar Sadiq — Athletic Club
  2. ⚽ Umar Sadiq — Valencia

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Iñaki Williams — Athletic Club

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
Underdog
35%
1X2
Valencia
90-minute result: Athletic Club
Nice call
48%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
88%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
41%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
41%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
Solid call
74%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
3:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 9% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 11 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 24% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 109 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 109 completed matches.

1X2 38% (Weak)
Both teams to score 53% (Average)
Total 1.5 67% (Strong)
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
Total 3.5 51% (Average)
Total 4.5 69% (Strong)
Score 5% (Risky)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 6 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 50% (Average)
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
Total 1.5 50% (Average)
Total 2.5 67% (Strong)
Total 3.5 83% (Strong)
Total 4.5 67% (Strong)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 51% (Average)
77 predictions
Both teams to score 59% (Good)
63 predictions
Total 1.5 84% (Strong)
81 predictions
Total 2.5 61% (Good)
46 predictions
Total 3.5 30% (Weak)
23 predictions
Total 4.5 74% (Strong)
97 predictions

Match overview