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Spain · Copa del Rey

11 Feb 2026 20:00 UTC

ATHLETIC CLUB vs REAL SOCIEDAD

Final 0:1

Real Sociedad won

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Beñat Turrientes — Real Sociedad

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
35%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Real Sociedad
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Big miss
88%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
Nice call
53%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Nice call
53%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
74%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 16% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 32 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 23% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 112 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 112 completed matches.

1X2 37% (Weak)
Both teams to score 53% (Average)
Total 1.5 68% (Strong)
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
Total 3.5 50% (Average)
Total 4.5 68% (Strong)
Score 4% (Risky)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 8 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 50% (Average)
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
Total 1.5 88% (Strong)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 38% (Weak)
Total 4.5 63% (Good)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 6% (Weak)
32 predictions
Both teams to score 58% (Good)
65 predictions
Total 1.5 85% (Strong)
84 predictions
Total 2.5 34% (Weak)
64 predictions
Total 3.5 56% (Good)
88 predictions
Total 4.5 73% (Strong)
100 predictions

Match overview