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Spain · Copa del Rey

12 Feb 2026 20:00 UTC

ATLETICO MADRID vs BARCELONA

Final 4:0

Atletico Madrid won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Eric Garcia — Atletico Madrid
  2. ⚽ Antoine Griezmann — Atletico Madrid
  3. ⚽ Ademola Lookman — Atletico Madrid
  4. ⚽ Julián Alvarez — Atletico Madrid

2nd half

  1. 🟥 Eric Garcia — Barcelona

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
Favorite
35%
1X2
Barcelona
90-minute result: Atletico Madrid
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
On point
88%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
58%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
42%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Solid call
74%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Off target
17%
Score
1:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 4:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 52% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 23 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 23% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 113 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 113 completed matches.

1X2 36% (Weak)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 67% (Strong)
Total 2.5 47% (Average)
Total 3.5 50% (Average)
Total 4.5 68% (Strong)
Score 4% (Risky)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 6 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 83% (Strong)
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
Total 1.5 83% (Strong)
Total 2.5 67% (Strong)
Total 3.5 17% (Weak)
Total 4.5 33% (Weak)
Score 17% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 49% (Average)
80 predictions
Both teams to score 58% (Good)
66 predictions
Total 1.5 84% (Strong)
85 predictions
Total 2.5 63% (Good)
48 predictions
Total 3.5 56% (Good)
89 predictions
Total 4.5 73% (Strong)
101 predictions

Match overview