← Back to matches

Spain · Copa del Rey

14 Jan 2026 20:00 UTC

DEPORTIVO ALAVES vs RAYO VALLECANO

Final 2:0

Deportivo Alaves won

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Toni Martínez — Deportivo Alaves
  2. 🟥 Isi Palazón — Rayo Vallecano
  3. ⚽ Carlos Vicente — Deportivo Alaves

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
43%
1X2
Rayo Vallecano
90-minute result: Deportivo Alaves
Lucky hit
37%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No
No surprise
24%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Nice call
53%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Nice call
53%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
74%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
0:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 52% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 21 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 25% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 103 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 103 completed matches.

1X2 50% (Average)
Both teams to score 53% (Average)
Total 1.5 66% (Strong)
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
Total 3.5 51% (Average)
Total 4.5 70% (Strong)
Score 5% (Risky)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 6 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 17% (Weak)
Both teams to score 33% (Weak)
Total 1.5 50% (Average)
Total 2.5 33% (Weak)
Total 3.5 67% (Strong)
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 50% (Average)
72 predictions
Both teams to score 45% (Average)
44 predictions
Total 1.5 19% (Weak)
27 predictions
Total 2.5 34% (Weak)
61 predictions
Total 3.5 56% (Good)
82 predictions
Total 4.5 74% (Strong)
93 predictions

Match overview