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Spain · Copa del Rey

06 Jan 2026 18:00 UTC

GRANADA vs RAYO VALLECANO

Final 1:3

Rayo Vallecano won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Pablo Sáenz — Granada

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Álvaro García — Rayo Vallecano
  2. ⚽ Pedro Díaz — Rayo Vallecano
  3. ⚽ Juanjo — Rayo Vallecano

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
43%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Rayo Vallecano
Nice call
48%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
81%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
53%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
53%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Solid call
74%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:3

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 14% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 29 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 24% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 99 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 99 completed matches.

1X2 3% (Weak)
Both teams to score 53% (Average)
Total 1.5 66% (Strong)
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
Total 3.5 54% (Average)
Total 4.5 70% (Strong)
Score 5% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 4 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 25% (Weak)
Both teams to score 0% (Weak)
Total 1.5 25% (Weak)
Total 2.5 25% (Weak)
Total 3.5 50% (Average)
Total 4.5 75% (Strong)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 3% (Weak)
29 predictions
Both teams to score 58% (Good)
55 predictions
Total 1.5 83% (Strong)
72 predictions
Total 2.5 36% (Weak)
59 predictions
Total 3.5 58% (Good)
79 predictions
Total 4.5 74% (Strong)
89 predictions

Match overview