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Spain · Copa del Rey

13 Jan 2026 20:00 UTC

DEPORTIVO LA CORUNA vs ATLETICO MADRID

Final 0:1

Atletico Madrid won

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Antoine Griezmann — Atletico Madrid

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
Favorite
44%
1X2
Atletico Madrid
90-minute result: Atletico Madrid
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Big miss
81%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
53%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
53%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
Solid call
74%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
1:3

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 50% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 10 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 24% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 100 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 100 completed matches.

1X2 49% (Average)
Both teams to score 53% (Average)
Total 1.5 66% (Strong)
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
Total 3.5 53% (Average)
Total 4.5 70% (Strong)
Score 5% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 4 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 25% (Weak)
Both teams to score 75% (Strong)
Total 1.5 75% (Strong)
Total 2.5 75% (Strong)
Total 3.5 50% (Average)
Total 4.5 50% (Average)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 49% (Average)
70 predictions
Both teams to score 59% (Good)
56 predictions
Total 1.5 84% (Strong)
73 predictions
Total 2.5 63% (Good)
40 predictions
Total 3.5 35% (Weak)
20 predictions
Total 4.5 74% (Strong)
90 predictions

Match overview