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Scotland · Challenge Cup · Challenge Cup Final Stage

13 Jan 2026 19:45 UTC

AYR vs STRANRAER

Final 4:1

Ayr won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Curtis Main — Ayr
  2. ⚽ Ronan Hughes — Stranraer
  3. ⚽ Ben Dempsey — Ayr
  4. ⚽ George Finney — Ayr

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Dominic Thomas — Ayr

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
40%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Ayr
Solid call
62%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
85%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
26%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
54%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
59%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
5%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 4:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 5% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 19 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 13% (Low)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 101 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 108 completed matches.

1X2 5% (Weak)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 77% (Strong)
Total 2.5 56% (Good)
Total 3.5 51% (Average)
Total 4.5 58% (Good)
Score 5% (Risky)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 8 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 38% (Weak)
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
Total 1.5 75% (Strong)
Total 2.5 38% (Weak)
Total 3.5 88% (Strong)
Total 4.5 75% (Strong)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 5% (Weak)
19 predictions
Both teams to score 66% (Strong)
64 predictions
Total 1.5 89% (Strong)
89 predictions
Total 2.5 24% (Weak)
42 predictions
Total 3.5 49% (Average)
73 predictions
Total 4.5 65% (Good)
94 predictions

Match overview