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Scotland · Challenge Cup · Challenge Cup Final Stage

13 Jan 2026 19:45 UTC

ARBROATH vs EAST FIFE

Final 3:0

Arbroath won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Findlay Marshall — Arbroath

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Findlay Marshall — Arbroath
  2. ⚽ McManus — Arbroath

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
Underdog
37%
1X2
East Fife
90-minute result: Arbroath
Off target
62%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
On point
85%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Solid call
70%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
54%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
28%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
2:3

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 20% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 25 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 13% (Low)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 101 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 108 completed matches.

1X2 52% (Average)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 77% (Strong)
Total 2.5 56% (Good)
Total 3.5 51% (Average)
Total 4.5 58% (Good)
Score 5% (Risky)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 8 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 38% (Weak)
Both teams to score 63% (Good)
Total 1.5 88% (Strong)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 25% (Weak)
Total 4.5 25% (Weak)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 52% (Average)
89 predictions
Both teams to score 66% (Strong)
64 predictions
Total 1.5 89% (Strong)
89 predictions
Total 2.5 76% (Strong)
66 predictions
Total 3.5 54% (Average)
35 predictions
Total 4.5 14% (Weak)
14 predictions

Match overview