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England · FA Cup

10 Jan 2026 15:00 UTC

STOKE vs COVENTRY

Final 1:0

Stoke won

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Lamine Cissé — Stoke

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Nice call
Underdog
39%
1X2
Stoke
90-minute result: Stoke
As expected
57%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Big miss
78%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
Off target
65%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
Lucky hit
43%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
75%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
11%
Score
2:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 31% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 13 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 25% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 65 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 64 completed matches.

1X2 48% (Average)
Both teams to score 58% (Good)
Total 1.5 75% (Strong)
Total 2.5 63% (Good)
Total 3.5 50% (Average)
Total 4.5 64% (Good)
Score 11% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

1X2 0% (Weak)
Both teams to score 0% (Weak)
Total 1.5 0% (Weak)
Total 2.5 0% (Weak)
Total 3.5 0% (Weak)
Total 4.5 0% (Weak)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 48% (Average)
48 predictions
Both teams to score 63% (Good)
41 predictions
Total 1.5 84% (Strong)
55 predictions
Total 2.5 75% (Strong)
40 predictions
Total 3.5 55% (Average)
42 predictions
Total 4.5 77% (Strong)
53 predictions

Match overview