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England · FA Cup

10 Jan 2026 15:00 UTC

BURNLEY vs MILLWALL

Final 5:1

Burnley won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Ashley Barnes — Burnley
  2. ⚽ Loum Tchaouna — Burnley
  3. ⚽ Jaidon Anthony — Burnley

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Ashley Barnes — Burnley
  2. ⚽ Jaydon Banel — Burnley
  3. ⚽ Josh Coburn — Millwall

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
Underdog
39%
1X2
Millwall
90-minute result: Burnley
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
As expected
59%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
59%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
59%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
75%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
11%
Score
0:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 5:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 9% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 11 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 25% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 65 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 64 completed matches.

1X2 48% (Average)
Both teams to score 58% (Good)
Total 1.5 75% (Strong)
Total 2.5 63% (Good)
Total 3.5 50% (Average)
Total 4.5 64% (Good)
Score 11% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

1X2 0% (Weak)
Both teams to score 0% (Weak)
Total 1.5 0% (Weak)
Total 2.5 0% (Weak)
Total 3.5 0% (Weak)
Total 4.5 0% (Weak)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 48% (Average)
48 predictions
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
23 predictions
Total 1.5 22% (Weak)
9 predictions
Total 2.5 42% (Weak)
24 predictions
Total 3.5 55% (Average)
42 predictions
Total 4.5 77% (Strong)
53 predictions

Match overview