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England · FA Cup

10 Jan 2026 15:00 UTC

DONCASTER vs SOUTHAMPTON

Final 2:3

Southampton won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Cameron Bragg — Southampton
  2. ⚽ Cameron Archer — Southampton
  3. ⚽ Kuryu Matsuki — Southampton

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Matthew Pearson — Doncaster
  2. ⚽ Jordan Gibson — Doncaster

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
Underdog
45%
1X2
Doncaster
90-minute result: Southampton
Solid call
62%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
80%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Solid call
70%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
35%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
35%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Over
Big miss
50%
Score
3:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:3

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 31% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 13 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 25% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 65 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 64 completed matches.

1X2 48% (Average)
Both teams to score 58% (Good)
Total 1.5 75% (Strong)
Total 2.5 63% (Good)
Total 3.5 50% (Average)
Total 4.5 64% (Good)
Score 11% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 2 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 50% (Average)
Both teams to score 100% (Strong)
Total 1.5 100% (Strong)
Total 2.5 100% (Strong)
Total 3.5 100% (Strong)
Total 4.5 100% (Strong)
Score 50% (Strong)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 48% (Average)
48 predictions
Both teams to score 63% (Good)
41 predictions
Total 1.5 84% (Strong)
55 predictions
Total 2.5 75% (Strong)
40 predictions
Total 3.5 41% (Weak)
22 predictions
Total 4.5 0% (Weak)
11 predictions

Match overview