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International · Africa Cup of Nations · Africa Cup of Nations Final Stage

09 Jan 2026 16:00 UTC

MALI vs SENEGAL

Final 0:1

Top match Senegal won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Iliman Ndiaye — Senegal

2nd half

  1. 🟥 Yves Bissouma — Mali

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
Favorite
45%
1X2
Senegal
90-minute result: Senegal
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Off target
65%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
34%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
On point
76%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
1:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 25% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 4 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 28% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 40 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 30 completed matches.

1X2 50% (Average)
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
Total 1.5 53% (Average)
Total 2.5 37% (Weak)
Total 3.5 80% (Strong)
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
Score 3% (Risky)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 7 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 29% (Weak)
Both teams to score 57% (Good)
Total 1.5 71% (Strong)
Total 2.5 43% (Weak)
Total 3.5 86% (Strong)
Total 4.5 100% (Strong)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 50% (Average)
26 predictions
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
18 predictions
Total 1.5 62% (Good)
26 predictions
Total 2.5 29% (Weak)
17 predictions
Total 3.5 83% (Strong)
29 predictions
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
30 predictions

Match overview