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Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Intermedio Grp. B

24 Jul 2026 22:30 UTC

NACIONAL vs CLUB ATLETICO PROGRESO

Model prediction

Weak
39%
1X2
Nacional
Weak
54%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Risky
32%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Weak
51%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Good
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Strong
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Weak
9%
Score
1:0

Chance of this exact score

Model Context

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 44% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 102 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 27% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 319 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 367 completed matches.

1X2 39% (Weak)
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
Total 1.5 56% (Good)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 89 past matches

1X2 39% (Weak)
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
Total 1.5 51% (Average)
Total 2.5 44% (Weak)
Total 3.5 71% (Strong)
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 39% (Weak)
250 predictions
Both teams to score 55% (Good)
212 predictions
Total 1.5 37% (Weak)
142 predictions
Total 2.5 56% (Good)
240 predictions
Total 3.5 80% (Strong)
327 predictions
Total 4.5 92% (Strong)
356 predictions

Match preview