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Ireland · Premier Division

24 Jul 2026 19:00 UTC

ST. PATRICK'S ATHLETIC vs DUNDALK

Final 1:1

Draw Last goal: St. Patrick's Athletic

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Daryl Horgan (penalty) — Dundalk

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Seán Hoare — St. Patrick's Athletic

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Big miss
51%
1X2
St. Patrick's Athletic
90-minute result: Draw
Nice call
57%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
37%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
28%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
8%
Score
3:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 56% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 34 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 30% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 208 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 256 completed matches.

1X2 42% (Weak)
Both teams to score 53% (Average)
Total 1.5 61% (Good)
Total 2.5 41% (Weak)
Total 3.5 58% (Good)
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 72 past matches

1X2 43% (Weak)
Both teams to score 42% (Weak)
Total 1.5 60% (Good)
Total 2.5 38% (Weak)
Total 3.5 56% (Good)
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 42% (Weak)
184 predictions
Both teams to score 58% (Good)
139 predictions
Total 1.5 74% (Strong)
180 predictions
Total 2.5 38% (Weak)
107 predictions
Total 3.5 17% (Weak)
58 predictions
Total 4.5 87% (Strong)
232 predictions

Match overview