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Switzerland · Challenge League

24 Jul 2026 18:15 UTC

ETOILE CAROUGE FC vs FC AARAU

Final 3:0

Etoile Carouge FC won Last goal: Etoile Carouge FC

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Sidiki Camara — Etoile Carouge FC
  2. ⚽ Oscar Correia — Etoile Carouge FC
  3. ⚽ Ousseynou Sene — Etoile Carouge FC

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
45%
1X2
FC Aarau
90-minute result: Etoile Carouge FC
Nice call
47%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No
On point
78%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
37%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Solid call
65%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
0:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 37% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 19 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 21% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 178 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 209 completed matches.

1X2 48% (Average)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 58% (Good)
Total 4.5 77% (Strong)
Score 6% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 78 past matches

1X2 37% (Weak)
Both teams to score 45% (Weak)
Total 1.5 65% (Strong)
Total 2.5 37% (Weak)
Total 3.5 54% (Average)
Total 4.5 81% (Strong)
Score 5% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 48% (Average)
148 predictions
Both teams to score 39% (Weak)
88 predictions
Total 1.5 79% (Strong)
159 predictions
Total 2.5 39% (Weak)
106 predictions
Total 3.5 65% (Good)
150 predictions
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
189 predictions

Match overview